It is now Night One: No Posting!

Legends tell of a demon ages ago, whose dark magic was only stopped by a group of heroes, each matching the demons’ magic with their own. In the end, the heroes were able to seal the vile demon Rontes away. Since that time, technology has replaced magic as the dominating force in the world, and all tales of Rontes had been forgotten...

However, the seal was not able to last forever, and a mistake by an overzealous researcher released Rontes once again, to attempt to take the world by force. Commanding an army of unwilling soldiers and beasts not seen in millennia, only one organized force remains to try and destroy Rontes once and for all…

-------------------------------------------------------------------

In the Quanta Militia briefing room, Captain Freak83 was receiving his orders for the organized operation meant to bring and end to Rontes’ threat once and for all…

“Captain Freak83 reporting as ordered, sir!”

“Captain, you are aware of Rontes’ headquarters, the old fortress six days east of here?” The general of the base stared at Freak83 as he said this, as though gauging the Captain’s reaction.

“Of course, sir.” Who hasn’t, thought Freak83. The fortress was a natural defense, surrounded by mountains in every direction, and since Rotnez’ return, the fortress had been bristling with heavy weapons and fully armed soldiers. The few soldiers who returned from scouting the area also remarked about “unseen horrors”…

At this point, the general of the base passed Freak83 a disk and a sheet of paper. “Your orders, and your crew roster. They’ve all been informed, and are ready to go at any-“

A muffled explosion cut the general’s statement short. Freak83 decided to finish, “At any time?”

General Comprox motioned for Freak83 to leave, then turned on an intercom and shouted, “Crew of the Insurrection Omega, report to Launch Bay Delta immediately! All other personnel, stand by to repel incoming troops!”

-------------------------------------------------------------------

As Freak83 headed for the stairwell to Launch Bay Delta, he decided to take a look at the paper Comprox had given him...

The disk with this letter contains your orders. Be aware, though, as there may be infiltrators amongst the crew. Rontes may have given any of his operatives unknown abilities. However, I have included some of my finest officers within the crew, a few of which have unknown abilities of their own. Defeat the infiltrators, and complete your mission.

The best of luck to those selected for this mission. You'll need it.

Crew Roster

1. Captain Freak83 [EST]
2. Commander Eternaly_Lost [EST]
3. Commander im_lost [PST]
4. Lieutenant Xentor [EST]
5. Lieutenant Chakuu [EST]
6. Lieutenant Gwahir [EST]
7. Lieutenant Zor2 [GMT]
8. Private TheMuffinMan [GMT]
9. Private doomchica [PST]
10. Private Mouse [AEST/GMT+10]
11. Private Isamil [EST]
12. Private Aldaris [GMT]
13. Private Thansal [EST]
14. Private Harrower [EST]
15. Private iggymatrixcounter [EST]
16. Private microcosm [EST]
17. Private wonedslackystyle [EST]
18. Private Ana [CST]
19. Private lolfighter [CET/GMT+1]

A reminder to all players that the story (and the ranks I threw in) does not in any way reflect roles.

Night One will end at Feb. 21st, 8:00 PM EST (5:00 PM PST)

At this time, only the Seer must send me a PM.

It is now Day One. Post away!

--------------------------------------------------------------

Launch Bay Delta

From the outside, the Insurrection Omega merely looked like an incredibly oversized tank. On the inside, however, were the supplies and capacity for a large group of soldiers to withstand weeks of travel, over any expected obstacles.

As troops were scurrying around to their stations, Freak83 headed over to the nearest entrance of the I/O, as the team in charge of constructing the behemoth preferred to call it. Upon reaching the eastern entrance, there was a pause as Freak83 entered in his password to a nearby keypad, causing the door to slide open. Freak83 rushed over to the bridge...

--------------------------------------------------------------

"This is Launch Control to the Insurrection Omega. Confirm launch preparation."

At the moment, Lieutenant Chakuu was the only one on the bridge, frantically preparing as most of the crew was either still boarding, or in their respective positions at other parts of the I/O. He almost missed the message, but heard enough of it to reply, "Most of the crew is still boarding! We need more time!"

"We need to launch you as soon as possible, Insurrection Omega. Where is Captain Freak83?" A bit of impatience in the launch controller's voice was quite easy to hear, and near the end, you could almost hear the tension going on by the impending attack.

The deck shook again, reminding Chakuu, and likely everyone else on board, that there was no time to lose. The bridge's entrance swung open, and Lieutentant Xentor, along with Privates Isamil and Harrower, entered and took their seats at various consoles.

Chakuu decided to ask the new arrivals, "Did either of you see Captain Freak83?"

"I'm right here," a voice from behind Chakuu responded, "Sorry I'm late."

"C-Captain!" Chakuu turned around to see Freak83 standing right behind him. Freak83 ignored Chakuu's flustered expression and turned to the communications console.

"Captain Freak83 reporting. What's the situation, Launch Control?"
"Your land-based route is compromised by enemy forces, we're sending you through the underground route to Checkpoint Nu. We have no intelligence as to the current state of the tunnel system, however we can assume it to be relatively clear of enemy forces. Maintain radio silence until you reach Checkpoint Nu."
"Understood."

Freak83 moved over to another switch to signal all stations, "All stations report status."

--------------------------------------------------------------

Within a few minutes, Freak83 had recieved updates from Gwahir, Eternaly_Lost, iggymatrixcounter, and doomchica. With all the non-bridge stations checked and fully manned, Freak83 turned his attention to the officers on the bridge. "Navigation?"
"Course recived from Launch Command, and confirmed." Isamil sounded slightly nervous, but there was not a person on the craft that wasn't.
"Helmsman?"
"Ready for launch." Harrower was one of the best tank drivers in the Militia, so he was practically guaranteed the chance to drive the I/O.
"Tactical?"
"Reporting in, all systems green to go." Xentor wasn't exactly the smartest person on the ship, but his knowledge of small-scale and large-scale tactics was second to none.
"Communications?"
"Ready, for what good it does..." Chakuu sounded disappointed, and quite rightly so. With radio silence in effect, he would pretty much be limited to relaying orders and status reports from around the rest of the craft.

--------------------------------------------------------------

General Comprox entered the overlook control room of Launch Bay Delta, and just as he came in, he could hear Freak83, "All systems ready to go."

Commander Zokuban pressed a switch that sent the platform the Insurrection Omega was parked on down to the lower level where the tunnel system started.

General Comprox decided to give the I/O one last sendoff, but as the ground shook again, he rethought that, giving Freak83 just one last line before they launched, "Good luck Insurrection Omega. We're all counting on you up here!"

--------------------------------------------------------------

Freak83 heard Comprox's last message, and sat down near the tactical station. He thought for a moment, then turned to Chakuu. With a brief pause, he ordered, "Lieutenant, re-broadcast that message over the craft." Then, as Chakuu complied, Freak83 turned to the front, and then said, "Helm, maximum speed. We've got a schedule to keep."

None of the crew knew it, but as the Insurrection Omega dashed out of the launch bay, they sealed their fate - and that of the world in which they lived...

--------------------------------------------------------------

Crew Roster

1. Captain Freak83 [EST]
2. Commander Eternaly_Lost [EST]
3. Commander im_lost [PST]
4. Lieutenant Xentor [EST]
5. Lieutenant Chakuu [EST]
6. Lieutenant Gwahir [EST]
7. Lieutenant Zor2 [GMT]
8. Private TheMuffinMan [GMT]
9. Private doomchica [PST]
10. Private Mouse [AEST/GMT+10]
11. Private Isamil [EST]
12. Private Aldaris [GMT]
13. Private Thansal [EST]
14. Private Harrower [EST]
15. Private iggymatrixcounter [EST]
16. Private microcosm [EST]
17. Private wonedslackystyle [EST]
18. Private Ana [CST]
19. Private lolfighter [CET/GMT+1]

Day One will end Friday, Feb. 23rd at 8:00 PM EST (5:00 PM PST)

Also remember that you can send any logs you care to via PM at any time. (I've actually already recieved a few, heh...)

lolfighter is a wolf, candy-taker, puppy kicker and bad person™.

He must die and not add another game to his sig.

Also, regarding the Vigilante and the Guardian:

- The guardian will block the vigilante.
- If both the Vigilante and the Wolves target the same person, nothing special happens, just one death that night.
- If both the Vigilante, the Wolves, AND the Guardian target the same person, then the Guardian will block both. However, if the Guardian is acting on a reduced chance to protect, it's re-rolled for both the Vigilante and the Wolves.

random.org says I should vote for Mouse.

Something smells fishy, having Commanders like Eternaly_Lost just throwing us into this hellhole without sayin a word...

First off, great story thus far Emp. I dig the I/O setting.

I'm not going to vote randomly with absolutely nothing to go on. If it comes down to it and every player is active, i'll take the vote myself before i do a random.org.

In terms of a possible gameplan, it's just important that we all keep talking in the irc channel and posting on the forum. Communication is key, and hopefully we'll be able to gain more information in these first few days if people are regularly talking to each other in the open. Who knows, a wolf might even slip up and provide us with an easy kill for the day. Happy hunting

So yesterday I was having some interesting conversations with some players. A fair amount of you by what I was reading in the chat seem to think I'm a wolf because of my name change to Freak83|HUMAN. I know most of you realize I'm having fun and joking around but not all do. Here's a log of a convo I had with Eternaly_Lost yesterday.

<Eternaly_Lost> Hello freak
<Freak83|HUMAN> hi there!
<Freak83|HUMAN> what can i do for you today sir?
<Eternaly_Lost> are you realy a human?
<Freak83|HUMAN> of course i am
<Freak83|HUMAN> i know you dont think so though
<Freak83|HUMAN> cause i read the chat above
<Freak83|HUMAN> so let me ask you - what's the real reason you think i'm a wolf?
<Eternaly_Lost> Becuase you are pushing the fact you are human with the name
<Eternaly_Lost> That makes me think you have something to hide,
<Eternaly_Lost> Be it a role or a wolf
<Eternaly_Lost> and the wolf is more likely
<Freak83|HUMAN> you think so
<Freak83|HUMAN> is that the real reason
<Freak83|HUMAN> or because i'm the only one who's done something weird and random like this so far?
<Eternaly_Lost> I told you my reason
<Freak83|HUMAN> fair enough
<Eternaly_Lost> You are not the first to do somethign weird
<Freak83|HUMAN> but as far as i'm concerned, that's a very stupid thing for a wolf to do
<Freak83|HUMAN> make themselves stand out
<Eternaly_Lost> So it would be a sure thing for a wolf to do
<Eternaly_Lost> The best place to hide is in plain sight
<Freak83|HUMAN> reverse psychollogy eh
<Eternaly_Lost> Make everyone think you are a standing out too much to be a wofl, so that no one suppects you
<Freak83|HUMAN> you can throw that out there if you want
<Eternaly_Lost> I took the path last game, and it did well, Had i not noice my big error in staying that I was incotacte wiht the seer
<Freak83|HUMAN> but overall, as long as what i do can ensure activity i'm happy
<Eternaly_Lost> Im trying to do that too
<Freak83|HUMAN> you should see my random stunt i'm going to pull to cast my first random vote tomorrow
<Freak83|HUMAN> well unless i have reason to cast a real one by that point
<Eternaly_Lost> I think I will look forward to it
<Freak83|HUMAN> i know
<Freak83|HUMAN> cause then you can build on it with your theory XD
<Eternaly_Lost>
<Eternaly_Lost> so what is the stunt you are pulling?
<Freak83|HUMAN> you'll have to wait and see for my vote
<Freak83|HUMAN> it's so serious you'll be like
<Freak83|HUMAN> whoa
<Freak83|HUMAN> that's serious


--------------------------------------

Now before I cast my vote I need to show the extreme logic I have behind it. See this line here from the convo?

<Eternaly_Lost> and the wolf is more likely

Now pay attention,

<Eternaly_Lost> and the wolf is more likely

The word "the" is clearly not commonly used and definatly a suspicious acroynm. After consulting with many sources including secret government agents and rocket scientists, we've managed to come up with the most likely acroynm that Eternaly_Lost has been using with this. I do believe this is what he's trying to say:

T = This is the first letter of this word
H = Here is the letter that indicates I (Eternaly_Lost) am a wolf
E = Elephant

Due to this flawless logic, I feel compelled to vote for Eternaly_Lost.

Before it becomes too hard to go back and count, here's a vote count:

lolfighter (1) - Isamil
Mouse (1) - im_lost
Eternaly_Lost (2) -microcosm, Freak83

Random.org gives me a 12.

I cast my vote on Private Aldaris.


Oh and here something for people to read



Oh freak already post the whole thing.

For now I am going to hold off on my vote. I hate voting randomly (the chance of hitting the seer just kinda sucks to much). I guess I will end up voting for some one who is not active.... (or if anything actually comes up).

Oh, and grumble at Freak for creating that wonderful bit of circular logic that does absolutely nothing (aside from making me remember why you should never get into a battle of wits with a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line!)

I was gonna go with the first vote I saw, unless it was me of course, so lolfighter it is.

I'm going to vote for Aldaris. Why? Because of 1 2 3!

At the time of this vote:
1 vote for mouse

and 2 votes for 3 people!
2 against

Aldaris
LolFighter
Eternaly_Lost

Why Aldaris and not mouse?

Because he posted above me!

At least as good as Freak83, but with less flair. You need at least 15 pieces of flair.

lolfighter (2) - Isamil, Aldaris
Mouse (1) - im_lost
Eternaly_Lost (2) -microcosm, Freak83
Aldaris (2) - Eternaly_Lost, Gwahir

Ah, the randomness of the first day, how I've missed thee.

Considering I have nothing to go on, I'm gonna take a stab at my attacker

im_lost

Great story so far, and I think I'm the first observer to post on the thread.

It's looking good so far, and the I/O really perked my interest.

In any case, if I were in the game, I'll vote for Freak83 for his infallible logic on voting for Eternally_lost. The logic is just so simple if you just see it in his perspective.

So again, I vote for Freak83 (note: this doesn't count.)

Current tally:
lolfighter (2) - Isamil, Aldaris
Mouse (1) - im_lost
Eternaly_Lost (2) -microcosm, Freak83
Aldaris (2) - Eternaly_Lost, Gwahir
im_lost (1) - Mouse

He's the captain?! I didn't vote for him!

Oh, and just so you know: From this post on, I'm going to vote for anyone who writes my name with capital letters. You have been warned.


Anyway, Isamil is of course right: We're tied. Since there's nothing to go on, he might as well be the first death so there's no risk of 'im overtaking me.
Of course we're not really tied. He needed a special role in each of his games in order to win, while I only needed it once - and I could have won without it anyway. Also, his victories are in early games, while many are predominantly in late games. It is, of course, much easier to win early on because people are less experienced. Furthermore, he required six games to scrape together three victories, while I needed only four. Clearly I am the much better player.

<themuffinman|YNWA> not bitter then?
<lolfighter> 'bout what?
<themuffinman|YNWA> about isamil being better at twg than you
<lolfighter> I might be if he was.
<lolfighter> But it is readily apparent that he is not.
<lolfighter> ARE YOU SIDING WITH HIM?!
<themuffinman|YNWA> i think he is
<lolfighter> YOU'RE GOING TO VOTE FOR ME!!
<lolfighter> YOU'RE ALL OUT TO GET ME!

IRC wars!

On a side note, I'm surprised it's taken this long for SOMEONE to vote for me (even though it doesn't count) considering I know so many of you are still suspicious of my name change.

Alright, Freak83.... I'm voting for you because you're trying to confuse all the newbies with your ridiculous (But hilarious) pseudo-logic!

(Eh, I have nothing to go on, and most of the IRC chatter has been people whining about the forum being down)

------------------------------------------

On a completely random and seperate note, who are the lovers? I don't really see any benefit in them keeping their roles to thereselves. From what I understand the lovers can be anyone, wolf or human so in this case knowledge is power and if one is a wolf they don't have to worry about giving their wolfishness away.

If anyone sees a reason for them not to reveal themselves please speak up, but IMO I don't see any reason for them to have to hide it.

actually if one of the lovers is the seer then they should probably stay secret. Of course if they are both wolves then they should also.

Also, if they are both human, the wolves can wolf 2 people in one go.

For you failing at logic (And I know you are smarter then that) I will vote for you FreakEightyThree

If they're both human, revealing themselves would be the equivalent of saying to the wolves, "Kill one, get one free!" And even if one is a wolf, the human one doesn't know that.

Aye, i can't see any reason why the lovers would reveal themselves publically at this point of the game, for reasons you fellas have already stated

Current tally:
lolfighter (2) - Isamil, Aldaris
Mouse (1) - im_lost
Eternaly_Lost (2) - microcosm, Freak83
Aldaris (2) - Eternaly_Lost, Gwahir
im_lost (1) - Mouse
Isamil (1) - lolfighter
Freak83 (2) - Xentor, Thansal

Still have to vote:

Chakuu
Zor2
TheMuffinMan
doomchica
Harrower
iggymatrixcounter
wonedslackystyle
Ana

Thank you, that's all I needed to know. I blame studying for the evil known to man as finance for flawing my thinking!

Lovers are pretty much two free kills for one for wolves(Like Xentor said).

Though if one of the lovers is a wolf and a human(or wolf + wolf), it is a different story. One of the lovers can be a wolf right?

I do not think there is any reason for lovers to reveal themselves for a while but if we do have lovers who reveal themselves and the wolves have not killed them, it's possible to assume that one of the lovers has a wolf and that humans should lynch them.

Then again, the wolves could not kill the lovers(When they reveal) and try to make them look like a wolf so humans can lynch them for a 2 for 1 deal as well as deceiving humans into believing that one of them was the wolf but a psychic can see through it of course and then get a clue to who the real wolves are.

Humans could also just seer both of the lovers, but that may be a waste of seering. If it turns out they're both humans and they're not getting lynch from the humans because humans know that the lovers are humans, then the wolves would just kill them. If it turns out one of them is the wolf, humans can go for the kill but sacrificing someone else.


In other words: Even if we do know who the lovers are, it'll be an extremely tricky situation. Only with the help of the psychic can we confirm anything if the lovers are killed.

Okay, I've been getting a number of questions about how the lovers win, so I'll say it all at once.

- If both lovers are on the same team, then they win when the team wins. Otherwise, one's a wolf and one's a human, in which case...

- The human lover only wins if the wolf lover is the last wolf to be lynched.

- The wolf lover only wins if the human lover is still alive when the wolves win.

- Both lovers win if they happen to be the only two players left, period.

Hopefully that answers everyone's questions.

If both of the lovers were humans, and the wolves decided they wanted to kill them (despite the points that Petco made), it still might not be the best move. Why? Because it would be a good choice for the guardian to guard the lovers.

I'm not saying the lovers should reveal who they are, there have already been lots of good reasons listed not to make it openly known, but it's just one more piece of information to throw out there.

And since I wanted to sort the vote counts by highest count first, I'm reposting it.

Current tally:
lolfighter (2) - Isamil, Aldaris
Eternaly_Lost (2) - microcosm, Freak83
Aldaris (2) - Eternaly_Lost, Gwahir
Freak83 (2) - Xentor, Thansal
Mouse (1) - im_lost
im_lost (1) - Mouse
Isamil (1) - lolfighter

Still have to vote:

Chakuu
Zor2
TheMuffinMan
doomchica
Harrower
iggymatrixcounter
wonedslackystyle
Ana

And I guess I'm gonna have to make sure Isamil and lolfighter don't survive this game, because I need to catch up to them in games won. I've never been voted out of a game as a human, so it isn't my fault that they are ahead of me. The wolves in these games just don't like me apparently.

From an observer:

Im sorry, random.org was such a crutch last game and I really don't like it im_lost. I do agree freak83 is acting weird, too weird Id say...

I totally agree. I am insane!

It's best to not even discuss a strategy with the lovers.

If one of them does happen to be a wolf, then the pair will stay alive until the last possible second. There's no way a wolf would wolf his lover partner, and if we lynch one of them, then essentially that wolf has two people he needs to make sure doesn't get lynched.

If the lover's are on opposing teams, then sheer luck and behind the scene action will take care of it better than knowing it publically.

As far as setting up an alliance, I think there are two possibilities to consider, a hidden one, and a public one.

HIDDEN:
the seer goes to his first seered person and tells him that he's the seer and will be working with him. After each new green comes in, this first seered person tells each member who is in the alliance and who was added. Should make for an interesting swing on voting patterns though.

PUBLIC:
wasn't sure if this site knew about it, but basically have the seer'd pawn come out and after ample time blues hump him and they work accordingly. You run the risk of an ineffective guard but the wolves may not be willing to risk the chance.

Vigi is a fairly good role since I'm told that not only is the role hidden, but it works multiple times? I've only played games where it works once so it's interesting to see it working a lot. Only when we get towards the end of the game and the "even-odd number of players" factor comes into play should we consider not using it. Until then i suggest that along with our normal votes, we suggest a vigi target so the wolves don't get a lucky shot at someone and will know when the wolves got to pick as the vigi.

That's all for now, I have no idea who to vote for since I usually vote inactive players off first so if someone can post a list of the top 5 most commonly inactive players? I believe activity should be a great protection against a lynch since if you lose activity, you lose the game.

I also will be rereading the defending/accusing logic of others since I find it interesting that some players are defending other player's integrity without, theoretically, knowing anything about them.

Should be enough for now XD.

That happens every game, I would be very surprised if it isn't already on track.


Sounds like a good plan, though a night 1 vigilante kill would probably be random and is more likely to help the wolves by speeding up the game and killing a human.

Night 1 is over isn't it?

It does speed up the game, but I figure if everyone is sending in their lynch votes along with a vigi vote, the humans are pretty much getting two kills for the wolves one. If the humans don't take advantage of the vigi role, then the wolves could potentially get two kills, while we only get one.

Yes it speeds it up, but it's based on our terms and not the wolves... which has weight IMO.

Night 1 is over... yeah, we usually have an even number of players and start the game with a death on night 1.

Also, I don't how formal your record keeping is for twg, but I noticed the sigs and it seems that you only win if you survive until the end?

This is a design flaw since you will have people doing things only to survive, even people killing others because they won too many games...

People won't be willing to take a blow for the benefit of the whole, only worried about themselves.

You should still be able to "win" as long as your team wins, on our site we have a survival rate along with a win ratio which let's people be themselves and do what they feel will win the game rather than survive.

But that's completely my opinion and has nothing to do with twg.

On a related note, is it better to speed the game up with vigi kills or slow play it? I'm going to hold off on a vote simply because I know nothing about other players and won't be able to make a good judgement.

Still would like someone to produce a top 5 inactive list though if it's not too much trouble.

To your bolded point - That may be true sometimes but I haven't really seen much of that happening but maybe it'll change once we play more and more games. Right now, those statements about killing each other are mainly just jokes and not really serious.

We have been trying to figure a way to make the rewards work out but for now this will have to do and we haven't been worried too much about it.

Why would you even mention this fact? I hear wolves on this site aren't too smart, so giving out seemingly obvious WOLF strategy gets you absolutely no where and only gives guidelines for the wolves.

You also hold back a random vote because you don't want to hit the seer? Wow that's the wackest strategy I've ever seen. Might as well just not vote and collect phantoms instead?

thansal

Also I've been very interested in this vigi role since it's something that I've never seen for the most part.

I did the math on what would lead to what. It's been said that using the vigi for anything less than necessary speeds the game to a point where wolves would have the advantage, but after running the numbers I can't disagree more.

If we assume that no wolves will be hit during this senario then not using the vigi kill at all yields something like:

NOW: 19 players Lynch, Wolf
DAY2: 17 players L, W
DAY3: 15 players L, W
DAY4: 13 players L, W
DAY4: 11 players L, W
wolves win

same assumption but now we use the vigi kill every chance we get:
NOW: 19 players L, W, V
DAY2: 16 players L, W, V
DAY3: 13 players L, W, V
DAY4: 10 players L
(if we get the day4 lynch wrong then wolves win.)

So by not using the vigi every chance we get we lose a day and thus a seer pick (assuming he lives). BUT by using the vigi every night we gain 3 more kills. So by pure random numbers we gain a net of 2 kills.

That's 2 more chances at hitting a wolf, which is far greater IMO. And I'm pretty sure the wolves will be sending in them picks, so they can cut us down that way also if we just sit around on a power that we don't out into use ASAP. At least with all the humans using it with the wolves, there's a chance at a vigi kill on a wolf.

Hopefully this post is long enough to get the point across: USE YOUR VIGI PM EVERY NIGHT ON SOMEONE!!!!!!

I don't have any rep on this site so you're probably thinking, "who does this noob think he is?" But look at the numbers and redo it if you have to, it's definitely for our benefit.

The problem with math in this game is there are too many extra factors. What about the lovers, that can throw the math off. What about seer protection (rare I know)? What if they wolves and vigilante go for the same person? Relying on numbers sadly isn't the best.

I took all of that into consideration but decided they don't hold enough weight to totally throw out the benefits.

See if the lovers are hit, then you have the chance of killing a wolf but the intention was hitting a human. Or killing two wolves, or some other minor thing that can't objectively be quantified as well as what I'm purposing. Yea it's most likely that two humans would die, but as far as making up for it, all you would do is not use the kill the next day. (unless of course it happens the night before the end of game lynch) But as far it totally screwing us it's a small chance and therefore didn't take it into consideration.

The seer (unless public) always has a chance of being lynched as well as wolfed so vigi killing is just another kill he has to avoid and therefore since it's the same risk as another other kill vehicle, I ignored that possibility.

So yes, I did just do the math and while theoretically it's not 100%. PRACTICALLY having 2 more kill shots in a game is better than not having those chances right?

ZOMG! I'm a Lieutenant! All Privates must bow down to me! *lol

Anyways, no one's dead yet and there's nothing to go on for now...

I'm leaving for a ski trip this morning, and won't return until Sunday evening, so please excuse me for being inactive until then. Hopefully, it'll still be Day 2 by then, and I won't incur a 0.001 vote on myself (whatever it's called :-P)

Usually I always vote for the inactive players, but since I'm won't be back until atleast Day 2, I thought I'd make my vote a bit more meaningful (if that's even possible.) So I decided on random.org-ing the 3 players who already have 2 votes each. Thus, my result was... Private Aldaris.

Disclaimer: There are rounding errors in ALL of my calculations, as I am lazy and round to the nearet whole number in all steps.

iggy, just as a warning, the wolves are NOT stupid, don't count on that. If you want a decent proof, go check out the last game thread and the post game thread, the wolves came VERY close, im_lost just did an even better job.

I pointed out all the reasons why lovers should not come forth simply so that they were all on the table. Why I did this? I personally find withholding information much more of a suspicious (wolf like) thing then putting it out, so I always will talk about all points of a problem (that includes defending people's apparently dumb statements). I know going counter bandwagon will likely get me lynched until people are used to seeing me always argue like this (just as we are all used to seeing im_lost cast the first stone every day ).

as for the Vigi, I am actually against him making a vote unless he has a decent idea. Why? Simple probability states he is not going to hit a red. Night 2 (first time he is active) he has a 28% or 22% chance of hitting a Red (higher if we lynch a human, lower if we lynch a red). Night 3 (assuming he didn't act night 2) he has a 31% (3 civ deaths), 25% (2 civ deaths), 19% (1 civ death) of hitting a Red. He of course has a slightly better chance of hitting a red night 3 if there are fewer people alive.

Unless he has a good idea, a random vote is a BAD idea (Vig, if you have a good idea, kill the wolf!). I am of course disregarding a chance that one of the lovers got lynched/wolfed.

Quick side note, the lovers a likely both human.
Probability of 2 humans: 53%
Probability of 1 human 1 wolf: %42 (probability of Wolf->Civ + Civ->Wolf)
Probability of 2 Wolves: %5

So the probability of ANYONE taking out 2 civs by hitting the lovers is not very good.

mkay
[/math]

NINJA EDIT NEW POST:
Iggy, either you are a wolf or are not running the math. I am giving you the benefit of the doubt on this one and just saying you are not running the math.

Oh, and if we hit a lover, we have a 47% chance of getting a Wolf (always a good thing), however the wolves have a %100 chance of getting 2 humans (they will not wolf one of their own, unless they are using a VERY devious ploy that we haven't seen any one here try to pull, though they always could)

im lost

Too much talk about past games and whatnot!

I didn't mean to say you have dumb wolves, but as I hear it, you haven't had a single wolf win as of yet? Where I play the wolf-human win ratio is almost even (with the wolves winning 9 times in a row at one point) So yea, I'm used to a different set of wolf rules.



So we shouldn't lynch someone today since we only have a 26% chance of getting a wolf? Just because the odds aren't high, doesn't mean it isn't the best way. That logic makes me laugh. I will run some more numbers on this after class though since I'm running late.

The lovers can't be 2 wolves. EMP said he would repick roles if it came up that way. I don't know how that fits into things for all of this planning, but keep it in mind.

umm, yah. That is the EXACT problem with the first day. We have very little to go on, and thus we will more then likely hit a human, and that is never good for us. However, we have to lynch some one every day, so it is irrelivent. Chance is against humans in this game, and that is why it is best for the Vig to hold back untill he can scew the odds in favor of getting a wolf kill. You already showed that if the vig acts every night (And he and the wolves pick different targets) that lowers our number of rounds by 1, and that is exactly what the wolves need.



Ah! didn't know that. in that case:
Prob 2 humans is still: 53%
Prob Human/Wolf is now: %47

In Human/Wolf it is worth the sacrifice of killing the human (1 wolf = nearly 3 humans), unless that human has a roll. However probability still states that it is most likely Human/Human.

Note: I am disregaurding lovers for the most part. We have no good way of tellign what they are. Ofcourse the lovers are a tool the Seer can use (if he finds one lover, and then seers the other he can actively defend/attack properly, but for most of us it is irrelevant).

Current tally:
Aldaris (3) - Eternaly_Lost, Gwahir, Chakuu
lolfighter (2) - Isamil, Aldaris
Eternaly_Lost (2) - microcosm, Freak83
Freak83 (2) - Xentor, Thansal
im_lost (2) - Mouse, Zor2
Mouse (1) - im_lost
Isamil (1) - lolfighter
Thansal (1) - iggymatrixcounter

Still have to vote:

TheMuffinMan
doomchica
Harrower
wonedslackystyle
Ana

This probably isn't the greatest analogy in the world but I think as long as you have even had a hunch about a wolf then it is best to go on it. Think about during school when you're writing a multiple choice exam. I think we all know that during these exams usually your first hunch is the right answer? Usually on those tests there are 5 choices:

A
B
C
D
E

1/5 = 20%
ie. You have a 20% of being correct from this, but statistically speaking when you do go on your first hunch you're actually probably closer to 70-80% of the time.

Now, by your numbers 5/19 = 26% of hitting a wolf with a guess, as long as you do have a hunch you're already batting at a higher percentage then you do when writing these tests. Rather than having a 20% chance of getting it right you have a 25%. If the 20% usually is right 70-80% of the time, then aren't you going to be closer to being right with your hunch for the wolves 75-85% of the time?

Probably not the greatest analogy but it shows what I'm trying to say.

I'd have to disagree with you there Freak.

My first point would be that at this stage in the game i really doubt that anyone (maybe one or two do) have a good idea. At the moment i know i certainly don't You might feel that someone is acting oddly, which may indicate that he's not a plain human. However, he could just as easily be a role or a lover as a wolf. Or he could just be acting oddly. Hell, take a look at yoursel. Just by putting |HUMAN at the end of your name you've sparked a bit of suspicion, even though it's clearly just a joke.

My second point is that it's impossible to quantify a hunch. If you're going to talk percentages then keep to hard facts - 24% chance of lynching a wolf or whatever.

In terms of the vigilante, i really don't know. I like the idea of giving the humans as many days as possible. Having said that, a human vigilante would be a major help to our cause. No one is going to find out if they're the vigilante if no one votes. Perhaps we could make one kill tonight to find out who the vigilante is (obviously only he would know), then the next day we could discuss in public who we're going to kill (if anyone) the next night.

That way the vigilante stays anonymous, we're all in a position to discuss who should be killed at night (if anyone) and we prolong the game as long as possible.


Ninja edit: I mean't to put "have a good idea who the wolves are" on the 2nd line, sorry.

I agree with viging some one if you have a good idea, but a random vig based off of nothing other then the chan and this thread is silly (that is the state I am in, and thus no vigi vote from me).

However, as iggymatrixcounter is being more suspicious then Freak is (though he coulda just taken a nose dive to drop off of radar).

and just to update:
Current tally:
Aldaris (3) - Eternaly_Lost, Gwahir, Chakuu
lolfighter (2) - Isamil, Aldaris
Eternaly_Lost (2) - microcosm, Freak83
Freak83 (1) - Xentor
im_lost (2) - Mouse, Zor2
Mouse (1) - im_lost
Isamil (1) - lolfighter
Thansal (1) - iggymatrixcounter
iggymatrixcounter (1) - Thansal
Still have to vote:

TheMuffinMan
doomchica
Harrower
wonedslackystyle
Ana

I said that i wouldn't vote random, and i want to stress that this isn't a random vote. This is calculated and i've put a lot of thought into this post before clicking 'add reply'

I've been told by a 3rd party (who i trust enough to make this post), that lolfighter is not to be trusted at all. I really doubt that this is a wolf plot - it's just too big for that. So if lolly goes we've brought down those numbers, and hopefully got an extra day for us humans